New Zealand EV Market Crash: 5% Penetration in January 2024

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January delivered an EV market crash in plug-in electrical automobile gross sales in New Zealand, to their lowest degree in a number of years. After the monster gross sales data of December 2023, the elimination of the EV tax incentive, and the double whammy of the Street Consumer Cost (RUC), it was to be anticipated. Nevertheless, the dimensions of the autumn was nonetheless a shock. Gross sales of luxurious EVs don’t look like affected (they didn’t obtain any incentives below the earlier authorities), and Toyota appears to have entered the BEV market — for the primary time making the highest ten. Quelle shock! BMW was the highest promoting model!

Stalking on the NZ EV Fb web page reveals a sanguine strategy from the New Zealand electrical automobile neighborhood — “look forward to just a few months,” “test the quarterly information,” and “don’t neglect that this yr’s boats filled with BYDs and Tesla’s haven’t arrived but.” February and March information might be an fascinating learn — keep tuned. My “analysis” additionally revealed that there are nonetheless many chargers being put in all through the islands of the lengthy white cloud. So, clearly, EV uptake is anticipated to proceed, although probably at a slower tempo. The common of the final three months is 30%, based on James at EVDB.

Solely 244 new battery electrical automobiles had been registered in New Zealand in January 2024 (after 4,455 had been registered in December 2023). The low-cost fashions appeared to have the very best discount. The chief of the pack in January (supplanting the MG4) was the Seal, with 31 models, adopted by the Tesla Mannequin Y (25 models) after which third place going to the Toyota BZ4X (23 models).

Of the over 8,000 mild automobiles offered in January, BEVs comprised round 3%, PHEVs took 2.5% of the market, and a pair of,434 plug-less hybrids had been offered for 30% market share (remaining just about secure from December). In the meantime, 4,340 petrol-powered vehicles had been offered (nearly 4 occasions what had been offered in December 2023) for a 54% share of the market, and double the variety of diesels had been offered than in December. Ford scored nicely with the Everest (304 gross sales) and the Transit (20 gross sales).

The highest ten finest promoting battery electrical automobiles offered in New Zealand in January 2024 had been:

1. BYD Seal (31 gross sales, down from 159 final month)
2. Tesla Mannequin Y (25 gross sales, down from 356 final month)
3. Toyota BZ4X (23 gross sales)
4. Subaru Solterra (21 gross sales)
5. Audi e-tron (14 gross sales)
6. BMW 1 (13 gross sales)
7. BMW 4 (12 gross sales)
8. MG4 (12 gross sales, down from 622 final month)
9. BMW X 1 (9 gross sales)
10. Ford Mustang Mach-E (9 gross sales)

Particular commendation to the Kia EV9, which had 8 gross sales and simply missed the highest 10. After all, if we included second-hand imports, the Nissan LEAF could be prime of the desk with 34 models offered.

Clearly, eradicating the “ute tax” has hit the decrease value vehicles probably the most – three BMWs and an Audi have taken slots from so referred to as inexpensive fashions on the charts this month. The Koreans are additionally having a sluggish month. Who would have thought we’d see a Toyota mannequin within the prime ten for BEVs (or Subaru)? Though, I’ve seen the BZ4X promoting nicely in Europe and getting within the prime 20 in some international locations. I want Toyota nicely and hope they quickly be a part of the EV occasion with full enthusiasm. It could be nice if they might transition their dealerships and clients from HEV to BEV. Time will inform.

As was to be anticipated, there was an excessive amount of commentary on the NZ EV Fb web page about Toyota’s inclusion. Some discovered it past perception. Others thought that it was primarily pushed by model loyalty and Toyota’s repute for reliability. My concern could be about how lengthy model loyalty will final if Toyota can’t compete with different manufacturers — for worth — primarily BYD and Tesla. Hopefully, cross buying will happen. I’m certain there might be numerous conversations across the chargers. Will Toyota be a part of the opposite manufacturers in accessing Tesla’s tremendous charging community? Will we proceed to react like Pavlov’s canine?

Some commentators level to Toyota’s very profitable advertising and marketing campaigns, loyal fan base, and fleet consumers. Will Toyota cease preferencing HEVs over BEVs? When will it be capable to let go of hydrogen? Some level out that Toyota’s (and Subaru’s) e-TNGA platform is sort of new and must be street confirmed. A lot in order that one inquisitive EV shopper took the BZ4X for a drive and concluded that it felt like driving a first-generation EV, boring and lacking a number of options that you’d anticipate from a contemporary electrical automobile.

For an extended evaluation see right here:

Maybe the most effective remark was: time to cease sneering at Toyota. Sure, they’re late. Whereas what they’re providing is not so good as a Tesla or as low cost as a BYD, folks belief the Toyota model. The extra EVs on the street, the higher. Hear, hear I say.

The highest ten promoting plug-in hybrids in January 2024 (PHEVs) had been:

1. Porsche Cayenne (24 gross sales)
2. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (18, down from 249 final month)
3. Volkswagen Tuareg (14)
4. Mini Countryman (14), down from 16 final month
5. Land Rover Defender (13)
6. Mitsubishi Outlander (10) down from 320 final month
7. BMW X 5 (9)
8. Land Rover, Rover Sport (8)
9. Lexus NX (8)
10. Audi Q5 (7)

All collectively, 202 PHEVs offered in January 2024. Placing this chart collectively was a bizarre expertise as a result of prevalence of luxurious automobiles. I couldn’t escape the query: Will PHEVs survive with out the “ute tax”? Provided that there are not any comparable BEV variations coming south to NZ, I anticipate.

The Street Consumer Cost (RUC) will kick in on April 1st and add a value of roughly $76 per 1000 km for the EV driver. Seems like rather a lot, till you take a look at the price of petrol at $3 a litre. Cash leaves your pockets and goes to Saudi at an astonishing fee – it’s magic! James at EVDB tells us that below the RUC, “ massive, inefficient combustion automobiles can pay probably the most. Though RUCs on EVs could be seen as a disincentive to go full EV, there may be some incentive within the system to decide on an environment friendly automobile over a giant fuel guzzler.”

“What’s the heaviest EV in NZ? Mercedes-Benz EQS 450 SUV — a 7-seater with a 108 kWh battery, and an elephantine kerb weight of two,918 kg (a minimum of based on the brochure). In 2024, the median value of a brand new EV in NZ is $79,990. Issues are shifting in the correct route. The entry-level value in NZ has dropped considerably (to round $50,000).”

Probably probably the most weird response to the RUC is individuals who have purchased a PHEV due to the tax incentives who are actually making an attempt to take away {the electrical} enter in order to not should pay up. Why did they purchase a PHEV within the first place? In the event that they used it as a PHEV, they might save lots sufficient to cowl the RUC.

The New Yr will see extra fashions coming to New Zealand, and because the mud settles, we could quickly return to the 30% penetration achieved all through most of 2023. In 2024, anticipate to see the Zeekr, the Nissan Ariya, the Porsche Macan, the BYD Sea Lion, and the Polestar 4 enter the market. Regardless of the current blip, the long run appears to be like vivid, and electrical.

Picture by Partha Narasimhan on Unsplash