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Automotive World’s month-to-month international gentle automobile gross sales forecast offers a snapshot of previous and future gross sales volumes damaged down by area
World gentle automobile gross sales snapshot
The most important financial forecasters have been making upward revisions to their outlooks for 2024. In March Fitch Rankings elevated its forecast for international GDP progress in 2024 by 0.3pts (from December standing) to 2.4% and The Convention Board raised its forecast by 0.2pts (from February standing) to three%. Earlier the IMF raised its forecast by 0.2pts to three.1%.
Reflecting/contributing to the enhancing outlook, throughout February 2024 many of the high LV markets confirmed a year-on-year improve, although three of the High-16 (China, Japan, and South Korea) noticed declines.
The lower in China (PC solely and domestically produced solely) was anticipated, because of the timing of the Lunar new 12 months. In Japan a lot of the decline was linked to the certification scandal. On the different finish of the dimensions, gross sales in Russia grew by over 80% because the market continues to be distorted by the results of the conflict in Ukraine. Amongst different markets, a majority noticed double-digit progress charges, and this holds true for the year-to-date image.
Reflecting this early energy of demand, our general forecast for international demand in 2024 has been elevated by 0.3pts from prior standing, persevering with to anticipate additional progress however at a considerably slower tempo than 2023 because the pent-up demand has now been met.
World gentle automobile gross sales replace
| Mild Car gross sales (000s) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024(f) | Change -v- prior 12 months | Change -v- prior standing (pts) | Notes |
| China | 24,605.1 | 23,367.3 | 24,481.8 | 25,338.0 | 3.5% | 0.3 | Manufacturing unit output and retail gross sales beat expectations in Jan-Feb. Shopper confidence in Feb improved; First time for six months. Nevertheless, enterprise confidence slipped. |
| N. America (US & Canada) | 16,720.1 | 15,380.4 | 17,041.5 | 17,752.0 | 4.2% | 0.1 | Shopper confidence excessive. Demand helped by value competitors and incentives however constrained by excessive rates of interest for loans. |
| EU+EFTA+UK | 13,798.0 | 12,937.0 | 14,838.7 | 15,274.0 | 2.9% | 0.3 | Gross sales progress slowing however nonetheless constructive in 2024. LCVs out-performing. |
| S. America | 4,652.0 | 4,833.0 | 5,161.6 | 5,360.0 | 3.8% | 0.8 | 30% rise in Brazil in Feb. |
| India | 3,357.3 | 3,929.3 | 4,212.2 | 4,302.0 | 2.1% | 0.5 | Development underpinned by new product launches and steady market sentiment. |
| Japan | 4,361.5 | 4,121.4 | 4,632.8 | 4,730.0 | 2.1% | 0.0 | Demand down 16% Jan-Feb, however client and enterprise confidence stays excessive, significantly willingness to purchase sturdy items. |
| Asean | 2,455.0 | 2,794.0 | 2,824.7 | 2,875.0 | 1.8% | 0.0 | GDP in most nations anticipated to rise at quicker fee than 2023, however LV demand typically weaker in first two months. |
| Center East | 2,408.4 | 2,451.8 | 2,640.6 | 2,624.1 | -0.6% | 0.7 | Double-digit decline anticipated in Turkey (regional chief) after two robust years. |
| RoW | 7,827.5 | 7,025.7 | 7,362.9 | 7,427.8 | 0.9% | 0.0 | |
| Whole | 80,185.0 | 76,839.9 | 83,196.9 | 85,682.9 | 3.0% | 0.3 | |
| Change | -4.2% | 8.3% | 3.0% |
LV Gross sales, High-5 markets: Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)
LV Gross sales, High-5 markets: YTD Feb 2024 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)
LV Gross sales, Subsequent-11 markets: Feb 24 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)
LV Gross sales, Subsequent-11 markets: YTD Feb 24 -v- yr in the past (items, 000s)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (%)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: YTD Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (%)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (000 items)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: YTD Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (000 items)
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